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The Rubin Report - The Pulse of the NYC Development / Issue No. 9 - September 2023

Rubin Isak

After 12 consecutive months of inflation declining, in the last 2 months inflation has increased. The US inflation rate is now up to 3.67%, from 3.18% (which rose from 2.97%, a 26-month low). With the Fed continuing to state the inflation rate must be contained at 2%, I predict another rate increase of .25 basis points on next weeks FOMC meeting. If that is true, then the Prime Rate will hit 8.75% and the Federal Funds Rate, 5.75%. This will continue to put upwards pressure on mortgage rates, which is currently at all time highs. (Avg 30Yr at 7.25%)

On the development site transaction side, we have seen condo markets such as Astoria, Long Island City and Flushing in Queens and Williamsburg, Prospect Heights and Cobble Hill in Brooklyn trade at aggressive pricing levels for condominium slated projects.

In this issue I have also highlighted 25 recent New Building filings in Manhattan, Brooklyn & Queens. The 25 filings alone (filed in August in September) accounted for 1,416,977 ZFA and 1,442 Apartments. A very busy summer!

8 Highlighted Recent Development Site Transactions:

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25 Highlighted Recent New Building Filings in MN, BK & QNS:

  1. 88-90 White Street, Chinatown in Manhattan - Plans filed to build a 43,470 ZFA, 13-Story Residential Building with 32 apartments.
  2. 439 West 36th Street, Hell’s Kitchen in Manhattan - Plans filed to build a 48,138 ZFA, 12-Story Mixed-use Apartment Building with 52 apartments.
  3. 430 West 37th Street, Hell’s Kitchen in Manhattan - Plans filed to build a 128,345 ZFA, 11-Story Mixed-use Apartment Building with 128 apartments.
  4. 211 W 84th Street, Upper West Side in Manhattan - Plans filed to build a 155,648 ZFA, 18-Story Apartment Building with 45 apartments.
  5. 215 E 117th Street, East Harlem in Manhattan - Plans filed to build a 9,150 ZFA, 6-Story Apartment Building with 12 apartments.
  6. 150 Lawrence Street, Downtown Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 83,696 ZFA, 24-Story,  Apartment Building with 110 apartments plus commercial & office space.
  7. 178 4th Avenue, Gowanus, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 134,353 ZFA, 17-Story Apartment Building with 188 apartments and ground floor retail.
  8. 125 3rd Street, Gowanus, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 101,066 ZFA, 13-Story Apartment Building with 130 apartments and ground floor retail.
  9. 651 4th Avenue, Greenwood Heights, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 33,420 ZFA, 11-Story Apartment Building with 26 apartments and ground floor retail.
  10. 827 Sterling Place, Crown Heights, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 52,546 ZFA, 7-Story Apartment Building with 76 apartments.
  11. 1201 St Marks Ave, Crown Heights, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 6,721 ZFA, 4-Story + Penthouse Apartment Building with 8 apartments.
  12. 975 Nostrand Avenue, Crown Heights, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 205,257 ZFA, 2-Tower, 7-Story Apartment Buildings, totaling 266 apartments plus ground floor retail.
  13. 2177 60th Street, Borough Park, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 45,334 ZFA, 8-Story Apartment Building with 44 apartments.
  14. 2948 Brighton 4th St, Brighton Beach, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 8,794 ZFA, 6-Story Apartment Building with 13 apartments.
  15. 214 Parkville Ave, Kensington, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 18,607 ZFA, 8-Story Apartment Building with 27 apartments.
  16. 2112 Avenue P, Madison, Brooklyn - Plans filed to build a 31,988 ZFA, 8-Story Apartment Building with 47 apartments.
  17. 34-29 37th Street, LIC, Queens - Plans filed to build a 18,008 ZFA, 8-Story Apartment Building with 25 apartments.
  18. 38-16 Crescent Street, LIC, Queens - Plans filed to build a 15,035 ZFA, 6-Story Apartment Building with 11 apartments plus 2-floors of commercial space.
  19. 23-14 31st Street, Astoria, Queens - Plans filed to build a 15,818 ZFA, 7-Story Apartment Building with 10 apartments plus 2-floors of commercial space.
  20. 38-15 Queens Blvd, Sunnyside, Queens - Plans filed to build a 102,479 ZFA, 2-Story Commercial + Manufacturing building.
  21. 43-09 52nd Street, Woodside, Queens - Plans filed to build a 24,515 ZFA, 9-Story Apartment Building with 33 apartments.
  22. 140-66 34th Avenue, Flushing, Queens - Plans filed to build a 21,019 ZFA, 6-Story Apartment Building with 20 apartments.
  23. 132-77 Metropolitan Ave, Kew Gardens, Queens - Plans filed to build a 32,700 ZFA, 8-Story Building with 40 apartments and 2 levels of commercial space.
  24. 104-30 Jamaica Ave, Richmond Hill, Queens - Plans filed to build a 8,986 ZFA, 6-Story Apartment Building with 10 apartments.
  25. 89-25 162nd Street, Jamaica, Queens - Plans filed to build a 71,614 ZFA, 11-Story Apartment Building with 89 apartments.

Financial Markets Summary:

  • The Federal Prime Rate is still at 8.5%. The next FOMC meeting on Sept 20 might change that.
  • The Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR) is now at 5.33% it’s highest level ever, with the 12month forward looking SOFR at 5.43%.
  • The United Stated Federal Funds Rate is at 5.5% (subject to change this month)
  • United States Annual Inflation Rate: The current inflation rate has now risen to 3.67%, up from 3.18% the month prior. This is the 2nd increase in inflation after 12 consecutive decreases, where we finally hit sub 3% at 2.97% in June. The Fed’s stated goal is to steadily raise rates until they are able to achieve a 2% inflation rate.
  • The US 1-Year Treasury Rate has increased to 5.42% from 5.3% last month.
  • The US 10-Year Treasury Rate is now up to 4.27%, up from 4.01% last month.
  • Mortgage Rates: the average 30-Year Fixed Rate is now at 7.25%, up from 7.05% last month and the 15-Year Fixed Rate is at 6.59% up from 6.42% the previous month.